Accessories Sales Growing,
Fill In for Lost Garment Sales,
Fox Prices Reach New Peaks... .
Mainly for One-Skin Items

AS MINK PRICES CONTINUE TO REACH NEW HEIGHTS AND RETAILERS SEARCH FOR ALTERNATE ITEMS TO MAINTAIN THEIR MOST POPULAR PRICE POINTS FOR FUR GARMENTS, ANOTHER SECTOR HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AS A PROFIT CENTER Fur accessories, including hats, various neck pieces and other small items as well as trims and highlights have moved in even greater numbers onto the runways and into the fashion spotlight for the coming fall-winter season. This has been evident in virtually all the collections – both fur and general fashion – and the focus has been primarily on fox and some long-haired wild furs, such as lynx cat and coyote.

BECAUSE THESE ARE LARGELY SINGLE-SKIN APPLICATIONS OR LESS, PARTICULARLY WHEN USED AS TRIMS OR HIGHLIGHTS, PRICE IS NOT AS GREAT A COST FACTOR AS IT IS IN MULTIPLESKIN GARMENTS. This may help to explain why foxes and wild furs have been enjoying strong demand at the auctions and why buyers are willing to pay record-high prices for them. It was only about five years ago that Finnish farmers, the world’s leading producers, cut their blue and shadow blue fox production by 30% because of a sharp drop in prices, the result of a surge in China’s production and a major shift by Chinese buyers to their domestic product. But China also slashed its production bringing supply and demand into better balance and the item gradually recovered to profitability – and then some. Now, leading designers have decreed that oversized hats and bags are a ‘must’, as are trims and other fur highlights on everything down to what style-conscious people wear on their feet. Thus the results at the auction level should have been no great surprise.

RETAIL SALES OF FUR ACCESSORIES AND TRIMMINGS IN THE U.S. AMOUNTED TO ABOUT $221.1 MILLION LAST YEAR, ACCORDING TO THE FUR INFORMATION COUNCIL OF AMERICA. This compared with $212.6 million the previous year and $205.7 million in 2008. But these figures, included in overall retail fur sales of $1.34 billion, comments FICA executive director Keith Kaplan, do not include sales of such items by main-floor accessories departments in major specialty and department stores or by sporting goods and ski shops, whose sales of fur-related items are known to be substantial.

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Regards, Redfox

Mink Soars Higher at Legend,
China, Russia Still Pushing,
Harvesters Wild Sale also Hot,
Garment Prices Seen Rising

MINK PRICES ARE STILL ON THE RISE AND BREAKING NEW RECORDS WITH EACH SUCCEEDING AUCTION AND, AS THE PRINCIPAL ITEM IN THE INTERNATIONAL FUR MARKET, PAVING THE WAY FOR OTHER FURS TO ACHIEVE LEVELS NEVER SEEN BEFORE. The demand mainly reflects the apparently insatiable appetites of three countries – China, Russia and South Korea – and is lending credence to a belief expressed by some that, from the standpoint of current needs, there simply isn’t enough fur being produced. A rare phenomenon that could disappear virtually overnight, as changing fashions, lifestyles and economic factors have demonstrated in the past.

LAST WEEK’S AUCTION AT AMERICAN LEGEND, PREDICTABLY, FOLLOWED A TREND THAT WAS RENEWED THIS SEASON FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE YEAR. As an example, premium quality black males brought 6% more than was paid for comparable North American pelts sold in February, while the females moved 10% higher. Overall, the company calculated its blacks brought prices that were 12% to 15% above February levels and the mutations, because of limited quantities, advanced even more. The wild furs offered by Fur Harvesters Auction – which preceded the mink sale – registered even greater advances with at least two species reaching historical heights.

IN THE WILD FURS, THEY WERE JOINED BY EUROPEANS AND OTHERS, THE LONG-HAIRED ITEMS APPARENTLY DESTINED MAINLY FOR USE AS TRIMMINGS, ACCESSORIES AND FASHION HIGHLIGHTS.With record mink prices pushing retail garment prices into uncharted territory, such single-skin applications have become more attractive to retailers looking to preserve their most popular price points. Not only have they been shifting into garments of lower-priced furs and combinations, but also more hats and accessories.

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Redfox

Athens Fair Called Big Success,
Russians Again Are Main Buyers,
Furs Firm Up Role in Fashion,
Skin Shortages Looming?


IT MAY AMOUNT TO ONLY A DROP IN THE BUCKET IN RELATION TO GREECE’S SERIOUS DEBT PROBLEM, BUT THE COUNTRY’S FUR MANUFACTURERS ARE GIVING THE NATIONAL EFFORT A MAJOR BOOST. The industry dates back to the 13th century and is second in size only to that of China, but it ranks among the top three or four contributors to Greece’s export earnings. The recent event in Athens was rated a huge success, both in terms of attendance and the business written, which was estimated at 30% more than at last year’s debut. Crucial to the success is the tremendous market that has developed in Russia and its heavy dependence on Greece for its supplies.

THE ROLE OF FUR IN FASHION HAS BECOME SO PROMINENT IN RECENT SEASONS THAT IT TRANSCENDS THE ‘HERE-TODAY-GONE-TOMORROW’ CATEGORY OF FADS. So notes the Fur Information Council of America, declaring fur “is once again crowned as the MUST-HAVE item for fall/winter 2012-13 for both women and men.” As the evidence in the form of fur’s still-increasing presence in the world’s fashion presentations for the coming season, is considered, it should be noted that this publication, while devoted to reporting fur news, is not an arm of the industry – strictly independent – but must agree with such others as WWD, The New York Times, Harper’s Bazaar, Wall Street Journal, Glamour and New York Magazine that consumers would be blind not to take notice.

AT THIS POINT, THERE IS INCREASED TALK ABOUT POSSIBLE SHORTAGES LOOMING IN THIS YEAR’S SUPPLY OF MINK AND CERTAIN WILD FURS. There have been spot shortages in the past, but only in certain minor categories and usually developing at the tail end of the retail season, when last-minute substitutions were still feasible. The current belief is that this season’s supply could be exhausted well before the end of the year and on a much wider scale. China’s pressure at the auctions is believed to reflect not only a projection of its known needs, but also to prevent shutdowns of its huge factories and worker layoffs for lack of skins. Such concern about possible shortages among some retailers at the Hong Kong fair in February caused them not only to confirm their orders on the spot – as they did last year – but also to specify earlier delivery. Some who used to specify October-November delivery have changed to September-October and even earlier.


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Regards, BGL

Pelts Still Trending Upward,
Garment Prices Seen Following,
Canada Seal Harvest Begins,
Prospects Termed Brighter,
March Sales Wilt in Heat

MIDWAY THROUGH THE CURRENT AUCTION SEASON, BUT WITH MORE THAN HALF OF THIS YEAR’S PELT SUPPLIES HAVING PASSED UNDER THE HAMMER, THE FUR GARMENT PRICE STRUCTURE FOR THE COMING SEASON IS PRETTY MUCH SET. If not the final prices, the general direction – again up. For the third consecutive year, mink has been selling at record levels and, because of the umbrella effect mink tends to have over most other furs, the wild goods also have risen, some also having reached record heights. While fashion is at the root, the demand is mostly powered by the huge populations of China and Russia who now can afford such luxuries as fur.

OPENING WHOLESALE PRICES AT THIS YEAR’S INTERNATIONAL FAIRS HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO BUT, ACCORDING TO MANUFACTURERS, HAVEN’T FULLY REFLECTED THE NEW SKIN LEVELS. Better to take a shorter markup and get the initial orders, has been the reasoning, than cause retailers to plan even more conservatively for the season ahead. If the higher structure is accepted by enough consumers, the reorders will be forthcoming and a healthier markup at that point would be less likely to find as much resistance. Such thinking has worked well in recent years and, with the notable exception of the winter-less United States, also in the season just ended.

THE BELIEF THAT THIS YEAR WILL WITNESS GREATER SKIN SHORTAGES HAS BEEN WIDENING. China’s pressure at the auctions is believed to reflect not only its projected needs, but also to prevent plant shutdowns or worker layoffs for lack of skins. More retailers, sensing possible shortages, have not only confirmed their initial orders on the spot, but also have specified earlier delivery to be on the safe side.


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Regards, Redfox

Final Fairs: Sharp Contrast,
Hong Kong Ups Garment Prices,
Danish Tax Brings Grumbles (HED)


AS THE END OF THIS YEAR’S SERIES OF FUR FAIRS APPROACHES, THE TWO REMAINING EVENTS PRESENT A STARK CONTRAST IN PROSPECTS AS VIEWED FROM AN EXHIBITOR STANDPOINT. The North American Fur & Fashion Exposition in Montreal opens its three-day run next Sunday and the Greek Fur Fair follows later that week with its four-day event in Kastoria. If given the choice, under current circumstances, many of the manufacturers showing in Montreal would be delighted to trade places with their colleagues in Greece. But it’s also a safe bet that the Kastorians wouldn’t even consider such a switch.

EXHIBITORS GETTING READY FOR THIS WEEK’S NAFFEM ARE GEARING FOR WHAT MAY BE THEIR MOST CHALLENGING FAIR IN YEARS. They’re aware of retailers’ top-heavy inventories and expect that some will pass up this year’s edition. They also anticipate stiffer resistance and a tougher sell with those who do come, especially in view of higher prices not only in mink, but also many of the wild furs for which the Americans look to Canadian suppliers. In recognition of what they are likely to be facing, some vendors have dropped out of this year’s show. But those who remain – plus some new ones – recognize that, more than ever, retailers will have less to spend and will be looking for just a few fresh items and ignoring the staples they already own. Or bought two months ago in Hong Kong.

HONG KONG-BASED MANUFACTURERS HAVE RAISED WHOLESALE GARMENT PRICES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FURTHER INCREASES AT THE AUCTION LEVEL SINCE THE INTRODUCTION OF THEIR COLLECTIONS IN FEBRUARY. The increases range from 10% to as much as 30%, depending on the item and the source, and are said to be effective immediately on new orders and reorders. However, their big factories on the mainland are reported to be operating at less than normal levels for this time of the year and may not be too strict about the increases. The reason is that they are still occupied mostly with orders from North America and Europe; orders from their domestic Chinese accounts – the main part of their business – don’t usually kick in until later.


Regards, BGL

Mink Prices Still Soaring,
New Records at Kopenhagen,
Chinese Ranks Strengthen,
Support from Russia, Korea

ANOTHER AUCTION, ANOTHER RECORD PRICE LEVEL FOR MINK. IT SEEMS LIKE A STORY THAT KEEPS REPEATING ITSELF AT EACH SUCCEEDING SALE AND THE PLAYERS ARE SIMPLY TAKING THE CONTINUING INCREASES IN STRIDE. The Chinese market – always large in terms of inexpensive items and almost fully dependent on its domestic furs – has virtually exploded at the better end in line with the country’s economic dynamics. Its huge manufacturing industry, which has been supplying markets around the world, now finds its biggest market is in its own backyard. And price, to these newly-affluent consumers, apparently has been no object so far.

THAT LAST WEEK’S AUCTION AT KOPENHAGEN FUR ATTRACTED EVEN MORE CHINESE BUYERS WHO PUSHED PRICES TO NEWER HIGHS CAME AS NO SURPRISE. Although the recent retail season was a weather-related bust in the U.S. and economic problems hurt business in Europe, Chinese retailers enjoyed another good year. Their season even went beyond the usual New Year’s cutoff. At just past the mid-point of the auction season, it appears virtually certain that this will be a third consecutive banner year for farmers, wild fur collectors, dealers and, especially, the auction houses. As for manufacturers and retailers, it may depend on where they’re located and how price-sensitive their consumers are. As previously reported, Hong Kong/Chinese manufacturers have already raised wholesale garment prices since their lines were introduced. They may have anticipated the latest skin hikes. If not, there could be further increases in the offing. And the final sales of North American mink are still three weeks away.

CONVERSATIONS WITH WESTERN DEALERS AND BROKERS LAST WEEK FOUND A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT PRICES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, BARRING A MAJOR PROBLEM. .There were vivid memories of mink prices reaching new records in 2008, before major economies around the world took a nosedive and mink prices plummeted 37%.

May 7, 2012


NAFFEM Hurt by Warm Winter,
Fewer Buyers,
Sable Prices Increase by 30%,
Russians Now Biggest Buyers

IT WAS PROBABLY THE SMALLEST SHOW IN ITS 30-YEAR HISTORY, BUT BUYERS ATTENDING THE NORTH AMERICAN FUR & FASHION EXPOSITION IN MONTREAL LAST WEEK SAID THEY FOUND WHAT THEY WERE LOOKING FOR. As for the exhibitors, those who did their homework and anticipated what might interest retailers who had just come off a disappointing season with a reduced open-to-buy were largely satisfied with the orders they received. Even more so when they get the confirmations.

ACCESSORIES AND NOVELTIES DID RELATIVELY WELL AT NAFFEM, THEIR FEWER-SKIN – OR FRACTIONAL-SKIN – MAKEUPS MAKING THEM MORE ATTRACTIVE TO RETAILERS. Hats, neck pieces and other small items proved popular. At the couture showings in Paris, Milan, New York and elsewhere this year, almost everything modeled from head to toe that was made of or trimmed with fur drew the favorable attention of the fashion editors around the world. That, no doubt, contributing to the increased demand from other trades – and higher prices – at the auctions.

AS A FURTHER INDICATION OF RUSSIAN CONSUMERS’ INCREASED WEALTH AND ABILITY TO AFFORD LUXURIES PREVIOUSLY AVAILABLE ONLY TO TSARS AND OTHER NOBILITY, LAST WEEK’S AUCTION OF SABLES – THE COUNTRY’S PROUDEST EXPORT – WAS DOMINATED BY ITS DOMESTIC FUR TRADE. This was the year’s main offering at the sale in St. Petersburg, but the traditional buyers and brokers representing their mostly Western accounts had to fight much harder for their quarry and, in the end, had to settle for far less than what they had in mind. According to unofficial accounts, Russia was by far the biggest buyer, outbidding the seasoned veterans who couldn’t go too far beyond their clients’ specified limits


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Best, Redfox