December Retail ‘Decent’ So Far,
Cooler Weather Brings Upswing,
Auctions Open on Firm Note

AT THIS POINT, AMERICAN RETAILERS WERE EXPECTING DECEMBER TO PRODUCE ‘DECENT’ FIGURES AND CONTRIBUTE TO AN ‘OKAY’ SEASON. As one major retailer summed it up, “this may not be a banner year, but it won’t be a bad one.” The recent brightening of prospects for the European debt crisis and the positive effects on the financial markets both there and in the U.S. were said to have put upper-level consumers in more of a spending mood this holiday season. But gift-givers apparently are moving more conservatively and planning fewer surprises. According to retailers, more customers are bringing their recipients in to make the decisions, especially where bigticket items are concerned. Which signals to them they can expect to see fewer returns after the holidays.

LAST WEEK’S SEASON-OPENER AT FINNISH FUR SALES – NOW KNOWN ASSAGA FURS Oyj – MAINTAINED THE FIRM MINK PRICE LEVELS AS DID KOPENHAGENFURS THE PREVIOUS WEEK, BUT FOX PRICES WENT UP. Again, it was Hong Kong/China and Greece/Russia that led the field of over 500 buyers, a record for a December auction there. The collection of nearly a million mink was completely sold, including some 274,000 East European pelts which brought relatively high prices. Finnraccoons brought 5% above September levels, as did silver foxes. A collection of over 350,000 Afghan karakul was almost 60% sold at what the company termed record high prices, bought mainly by Greece.

PEOPLE, PLACES & THINGS: RENEE PRINCE-FILLIP has added the post of fur buyer at NEIMAN MARCUS, assuming duties formerly handled by the late Terry Thornton. She reports to LEWIS HOPKINS, who is Thornton’s successor as divisional vice-president of furs in addition to couture and evening wear. Prince-Fillip continues to buy couture and evening wear... MAGNUS LJUNG has been named business director in charge of farmer services for SAGA FURS and a member of the management group, effective Jan. 16. Before joining Saga, he was in charge of European sales in the paper industry, but grew up in a fur farming family.

Regards, Redfox

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Weather Wilts Retail Traffic,
China, Russia Remain Strong,
Pelt Prices Seen Holding Firm,
Finnish Auction Sets New Peaks

HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT AT THE BIG SKIN AUCTIONS STARTING NEXT WEEK IN COPENHAGEN IS NOT AS PREDICTABLE AS IT WAS A YEAR AGO, WHEN RETAILERS AROUND THE WORLD WERE ENJOYING A GOOD SEASON AND CLEARING THEIR INVENTORIES. The big Chinese and Russian markets, which have been driving skin prices up, got off to a later start because of mild weather, but have enjoyed good business since. But China’s business has come to a virtual standstill because the country is now in its New Year’s vacation mode. However, although its fur season may have peaked with the holiday, continuing winter conditions should mean continuing, albeit possibly slower, fur business. In a country the size of China, where disposable income has been growing, the numbers tend to be big. At the same time, business in Russia is described as brisk, which also signals replacement activity.

TAKEN TOGETHER, THE CHINESE AND RUSSIAN MARKETS SHOULD AGAIN BE POWERING THE NEW SEASON’S AUCTIONS. Indications are they will, but the question is, to what extent? The mere size of the Chinese fur manufacturing industry and of the individual factories would seem to dictate the need for huge skin supplies with which to operate and retain workers, but existing skin stocks and more conservative sales projections could come into play, especially in view of current economic conditions in its export markets. As for Russia, which apparently still has a healthy appetite for furs, there could be supply problems if Greece is unable to maintain its volume of shipments because its national debt may sharply curtail what credit its exporters can extend to Russian retailers.



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Regards, redfox

Season OK in China, Russia...,
but Disappointing Elsewhere,
Inconsistent Weather Cited,
Sable Prices Increase 20%.

DECEMBER AND JANUARY, THEIR TWO BIGGEST SALES MONTHS, PROVED SOMEWHAT DISAPPOINTING FOR MOST AMERICAN RETAILERS OF FUR AND OTHER WINTER-RELATED MERCHANDISE AND SERVICES. Elsewhere, however, the late arriving mercury drop tended to stay low enough and long enough to convince consumers to buy furs. Retailers in both China and Russia, following a later start, are still enjoying healthy sales and moving their inventories. South Korea as well as other important markets for furs also have been enjoying a good season, all of which lending credence to reports that this week’s big mink auction at Kopenhagen Fur is drawing a record attendance of over 700 buyers, at least half from Hong Kong and China. North American Fur Auctions – which will also will have wild furs in its sale next week – is expecting between 450 and 500 buyers, compared with a record 450 last year.

WITH BOTH MAJOR AUCTIONS DRAWING RECORD NUMBERS OF BUYERS, A REASONABLE ASSUMPTION WOULD BE THAT BOTH OFFERINGS WILL BE MET BY GOOD DEMAND. And, with the competition for goods that those numbers would suggest, indications are that skin prices are not likely to weaken. Rather, further strengthening may be in the offing. Hong Kong/Chinese buyers alone have already demonstrated they have the power to make the Kopenhagen sale a success. As for Greek/Russian participation being curbed as a result of Greece’s credit problems, sources believe major Greek operators are still capable of taking strong positions, but that the finances of their Russian accounts also have improved.

WHOLESALE GARMENT PRICES AT THE UPCOMING FAIRS IN HONG KONG AND ELSEWHERE FIGURE TO BE HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO BECAUSE OF INTERMEDIATE HIKES AT THE SKIN LEVEL, BUT COULD INCREASE FURTHER BASED ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS WEEK IN COPENHAGEN. If the experience of the past two years still applies, this may not have much negative effect, if any, on retail demand in China or Russia, where many consumers – if not most – are first-time fur customers and newly well-fixed with disposable income, so not too many are aware of price movements. In Western Europe and the U.S., however, where fur customers tend to be more savvy, retailers may be doing some heavy thinking before placing their orders for the next season.

Regards, Redfox

Mink Prices Up at Kopenhagen,
Record Crowd Results in Sellout,
Sable Rises at Sojuzpushnina,
Hong Kong Fair Seen Bigger,
Ranch Terrorist Gets 5 Years

MINK PRICES WERE EVEN STRONGER THAN HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED LAST WEEK, AS A RECORD NUMBER OF BUYERS COMPETED FOR SKINS AT KOPENHAGEN FUR’S FIRST MAJOR SALE OF THE NEW SEASON. At presstime, the collection of 4.6 million pelts was selling at a 100% rate, the major categories such as black, brown and glow bringing increases of 10% to 15%, while mutations were generally stronger, a reflection of their smaller quantities. Palomino, silverblue and cinnamon types, for example, brought higher averages than blacks or browns and rose as much as 35% over prices paid last June.

THE COMPANY HADN’T YET ISSUED ITS FORMAL REPORT, BUT INFORMATION FROM BUYERS AND OTHERS SUGGESTED THAT MOST OF THE PURCHASES WERE INTENDED FOR OTHER THAN FULL FUR GARMENTS, MAINLY ACCESSORIES AND TRIMMINGS. That, at least, would be commensurate with the markets for which they were being bought. Both China and Russia, by far the largest buyers, are still using mink and other luxury furs mainly as single skins in trimmings and hats, so increases are easier to pass along than in jackets and coats. At the current level of skin prices, a short coat or stroller that takes about 40 black or mahogany females now means $3,000 or more in material alone, plus the cost of manufacturing, finishing and a modest profit for the maker even before it gets to the retailer. Whereas in China, whose retailers are known to operate on the slimmest of margins, furriers in the Western markets with their eyes on higher overheads and a decent profit are considered likely to move conservatively at these prices.

THIS YEAR’S EDITION OF THE HONG KONG FUR & FASHION FAIR IS SHAPING UP TO BE EVEN BIGGER THAN LAST YEAR’S RECORD-BREAKING SHOW. Despite Europe’s debt crisis and still-recovering economies elsewhere, indications are that attendance at the four-day event opening Feb. 25 will exceed last year’s. According to the Hong Kong Fur Federation, the show’s producer, visitor pre-registration is up 5%. Moreover, the demand for tickets to the gala dinner and fashion show has been “overwhelming,” said a spokesperson, resulting in a complete sellout. Last year’s gala was attended by 1,850 guests. Again occupying three halls in the Hong Kong Convention & Exhibition Center, it will field 800 booths (versus 780 last year) operated by 280 exhibitors from 16 countries and regions in about 420,000 square feet of space. There also will be national pavilions from Germany and Greece.

Regards, BGL

Hong Kong Fair Big Success, Attendance,
Sales at New Highs,
Higher Prices No Major Block,
Russia, Korea Biggest Buyers,
U.S. Consumer Confidence Up


CONTINUED PRICE STRENGTH AT THIS YEAR’S FUR AUCTIONS FOUND JUSTIFICATION AT THE NEXT LEVEL OF THE DISTRIBUTION CHAIN LAST WEEK, WHEN HONG KONG MANUFACTURERS RACKED UP HEALTHY SALES AT THEIR BIG FAIR. Despite an uneven fall-winter season that didn’t play as well in Western countries as it did in China and Russia, business at the annual Hong Kong International Fur Fair was described as even better than at last year’s record-breaking event. And, given last year’s huge success in the face of substantially higher prices, this year’s further increases were mostly taken in stride, even expected.

TO BE SURE, IT WAS MAINLY CHINESE AND RUSSIANS WHO ACCOUNTED FOR THE GREATER ATTENDANCE AT THIS YEAR’S SHOW, A DIRECT REFLECTION OF THE SEASON’S RESULTS AT RETAIL. Total attendance at the four-day event topped 7,800 from more than 30 countries, about 9% above last year’s record crowd. A reasonable barometer of the world market’s current and projected needs might be found in the opening day’s activity, which saw more than 5,000 visitors streaming through the doors and laying down orders almost immediately. Local manufacturers, who filled the first two floors of the huge Hong Kong Convention & Exhibition Center, reported good business at the outset and the first indication that the higher prices were being accepted – at least by retailers. The next three days brought additional buyers and pushed the activity to the third floor, which was occupied mostly by foreign exhibitors. Among them, a Greek pavilion of 43 manufacturers, a German section with 15 and some 50 independent Chinese producers. There also were exhibitors from Italy, Spain, Turkey, Finland, Canada and the U.S.

MIFUR, THE BIG ITALIAN FAIR, OPENED JUST AFTER WE WENT TO PRESS AND EXPECTATIONS WERE RUNNING HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN VIEW OF THE SUCCESSFUL HONG KONG FAIR. After three years in the new exhibition center in the nearby suburb of Rho, it has returned to its former locale at Fiero Milano for this year’s five-day run. This is the 17th edition and again incorporates the venerable Fur & Fashion Frankfurt along with shoe and leather industry fairs, the synergy again expected to benefit all. The return to downtown Milan was attributed to the unavailability in Rho of the dates needed to run concurrently with the accessories exhibitions. As has been the case in recent years, Russians are expected to provide the main buying power, repeating last week’s performance in Hong Kong, with strong support from China, Korea and Japan, those markets compensating for Europeans and Americans who may be exercising more caution this year.

Best Regards, BGL


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Fairs Reflect Retail Optimism,
Price Hikes Seen No Problem,
MIFUR Scores Big Gains,
Trade Surviving Greek Crisis...,
Fur Exports Are Major Earner

HALFWAY THROUGH THIS YEAR’S SERIES OF INTERNATIONAL FUR FAIRS FINDS THE GLOBAL FUR TRADE GEARING OPTIMISTICALLY FOR THE 2012-13 FALL-WINTER SEASON. Business written by exhibitors at all of the fairs to date has been at least on par with that of a year ago and, as in the case of the recent big Hong Kong fair, registering healthy gains. Most of the increases, so far, have been in the orders placed by Russians, Koreans and Japanese, a direct reflection of how they fared in the selling season just ended. Retailers in those countries, along with China, got the benefit of an otherwise uneven weather pattern that hampered sales in the United States and elsewhere.

THERE HAD BEEN SOME APPREHENSION AS TO HOW RETAILERS’ MIGHT REACT TO THIS YEAR’S HIGHER GARMENT PRICES, BUT SUCH CONCERNS PROVED TO BE UNWARRANTED, AS WERE SIMILAR FEARS LAST YEAR. Price, it appears, is not as critical among such newer consumers as Russians and Chinese as retailers in the more established U.S. and Western European markets believe it to be among their more sophisticated clienteles. But even the latter have been pleasantly surprised, in recent seasons, at finding less resistance to higher price tags than they had expected. Even so, Americans buying in Hong Kong this year again kept their most popular price points in mind and leaned more heavily toward shorter and slimmer mink coats and jackets requiring fewer skins, as well as neck pieces, hats and other accessories. They also bought more items of less expensive furs. And this year’s garment prices did not rise as sharply as they did last year because, as an official of the Hong Kong fair pointed out, manufacturers “found inventive ways to work and pair the materials to mitigate those rising costs” (SPR, Mar. 5).

RETAIL FUR SALES IN THE U.S. EDGED UP 3.4% LAST YEAR, BRINGING THE TOTAL TO $1.34 BILLION, ACCORDING TO THE FUR INFORMATION COUNCIL OF AMERICA. That includes fur garments as well as accessories, trimmings and such services as storage, cleaning, repairs and remodeling. “Fashion was the driving force,” said FICA executive director Keith Kaplan, “with vests, cropped jackets and boleros among the most popular items. The burgeoning fur accessories category,” he added, “also fueled growth with the applications of fur on hats, bags, shoes and boots. And the fur scarf was a major trend and gift item.”


On March 14 2012, Kopenhagen Fur has presented its highest earnings ever, demonstrating a significant increase in auction revenue:

14 per cent increase in profits in 2010/2011, resulting in total revenues of DKK 8.1 billion (USD 1.4 billion), compared to DKK 7.1 billion (USD 1.2 billion) in total revenue generated in the year before

DKK 269 million (USD 48 million) in profits

And demands for Danish fur show no signs of slowing down. As Kopenhagen Fur reports: “Demand for fur is solid from China, but also the traditional markets like Russia, Europe and North America have an appetite for fur.

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Regards, Redfox